Author: Josh Levy
LEAD was recently asked to present demographic and economic trends to an economic development forum in Scotland County. The organizers and attendees wanted to better understand the county’s persistently high unemployment rate and other economic challenges. In many ways, Scotland County experienced a more intense version of the changes occurring in the state during the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
One important piece of the puzzle is Scotland County’s concentration in manufacturing, centered in the historic textile town of Laurinburg. Manufacturing employment in the county peaked in 1996, which was also around the peak of manufacturing employment in North Carolina. However, manufacturing was a much larger contributor to the local economy than it was even to the state economy — accounting for nearly half of Scotland’s employment in 1996 vs. 31 percent of North Carolina’s.
From 2001 to 2014, more than 5,400 of these manufacturing jobs disappeared — a 74 percent loss. Although the state and the nation also lost manufacturing employment during this period, Scotland County’s percentage loss was far greater.
Because the county was so concentrated in manufacturing employment, these losses were especially damaging to the overall economy. During this same period, the size of the labor force (those employed or seeking work) shrunk by 25 percent. An unofficial estimate of the labor force participation rate for the county, using the percentage of the noninstitutionalized population 16 years and older who are part of the labor force, fell from 58 percent to 49 percent.1 Although this rate has also declined in North Carolina and in the U.S., as a result of an aging population and other trends, Scotland County’s low rate is particularly concerning.
Whereas Scotland County’s unemployment rate is and historically has been higher than its neighbors, it shares similar median wages, income levels, and poverty rates with counties such as Robeson and Richmond. Another challenge is education — Scotland County’s high school graduation rate for a four-year cohort was only 55 percent as recently as 2005.2 Since then, the graduation rate has risen to 78 percent, closer to but still below the state average of 84 percent. While this improvement bodes well for the county’s long-term prospects, its current educational attainment is still lower than the state and remains a challenge.
The population projection for the county is fairly flat overall, and will be characterized by an older population with shrinking numbers of working-age adults and children. This scenario is not specific to Scotland County, but will become fairly common for many rural counties in the state and nation over the next two decades due to demographic shifts.
Although there are no easy solutions, strategies for future growth may include regional approaches (recognizing that neighboring counties are part of a regional labor market), helping existing industry grow, expanding entrepreneurship opportunities, recruiting and retaining people (by encouraging return migration, for example) and working to diversify the economy while also building on the county’s manufacturing strength.
1 Estimate of county labor force participation rate calculated by LEAD using population estimates for the noninstitutionalized population 16 years and older from the Office of State Budget and Management, annual averages for 2005 and 2013. These population estimates may include military personnel.
2 North Carolina Department of Public Instruction, four-year cohort graduation rates